"...it's not the training to be mean but the training to be kind that is used to keep us leashed best." ~ Black Dog Red

"In case you haven't recognized the trend: it proceeds action, dissent, speech." ~ davidly, on how wars get done

"...What sort of meager, unerotic existence must a man live to find himself moved to such ecstatic heights by the mundane sniping of a congressional budget fight. The fate of human existence does not hang in the balance. The gods are not arrayed on either side. Poseiden, earth-shaker, has regrettably set his sights on the poor fishermen of northern Japan and not on Washington, D.C. where his ire might do some good--I can think of no better spot for a little wetland reclamation project, if you know what I mean. The fight is neither revolution nor apocalypse; it is hardly even a fight. A lot of apparatchiks are moving a lot of phony numbers with more zeros than a century of soccer scores around, weaving a brittle chrysalis around a gross worm that, some time hence, will emerge, untransformed, still a worm." ~ IOZ

Jun 24, 2010

The Carnifex Covers for the New MacArthur

The Carnifex has fallen. Or has he risen from the ashes of the flailing Obama Regime, awaiting his set piece re-introduction to Homeland Salvation, come the coming purification of "socialism" in the name of flag wrapped Jeebus?

He's now a guaranteed hero to the sort of people who love themselves some Palin. He'll have dinner with McCain. Boeing knows his future, and its own.

The future lies off the coasts of Colombia, Venezuela, the Horn of Africa and Iran.

The empire expands, or the empire falls.

McChrystal will have his Restoration.

Methinks, also, that Petraeus serves the interests well. No better man for the run up to Iran, what what.

So mayhap I'll stake a claim: this ain't about Off-Ghan-Ee-Stonn.

'Tis 'bout Iran.


RedPhillip said...

Perhaps I'll take augury in a flight of your namesakes? What you propose is terrifyingly possible. Some kind of major, overt assault on Iran has been in the cards for a long time.

Jack Crow said...

Watching the flight of a murder of crows is probably more useful than following the politics of empire.


I'm guessing, but I look back to the Georgian-Russian conflict and see a major shift along the axis of power.

The Russian state reasserted control over its Near Abroad, and overtly, assiduously, deliberately included Iran under that umbrella.

It also horse traded Israel into a precarious position (isolating the Turks, for very small concessions to Israeli local monopoly in shock trooper training).

Firming up its benign neglect of the 'Stans (a brilliant maskirovka, that - since the US abhors a power vacuum, and a whole host of Americans in mercenary and official outfits have followed on Zinni's Folly), the Russian state has shifted the American line of control deep into Asia and away from the European Near Abroad (Byelorussia, Ukraine, the unfortunate Baltic states on the other side of Russian Kaliningrad).

Russia absolutely dominates the European natgas and oil predicament, and has literally shut down Europe's energy conduits, during wintertime, forcing the German state to calculate both its east and the Islamic south, and putting great tension on NATO. Since the American state wants NATO to function along the same lines as the UNSC while the German-French axis wants NATO to serve central power energy needs, NATO is now divided between worrying the Russians without any ability to counter them *and* enforcing American dominance in the Caspian basin and the Middle East.

This means the Germans have to take their cues from the American state, which obviously chaffs more than a bit.

If you add all that up, plus other stuff I'm too lazy to link directly, the US-EU alliance requires an alternative to Russian energy dominance.

(This should, I think, explain some of the strategic interest in maintaining Israel as a lodestone for regional violence.)

Iraq didn't fail miserably, as some contend. Iraq War Two was about fucking Iraq up so bad that the European energy source became and unstable war zone.

This is crippled the EU - from an energy perspective. They must either cozy up to a resurgent and rodinist Russia (one which Putin is inexorably driving back towards some sort of nominal Romanov participation...he went so far as to patch up all manner of relations with that ancient clan, especially the premier branch in Byelorussia, as well as rehabilitating the Romanovs at home and unifying several branches of the Orthodox Church) - or follow American leads.

The Europeans have chosen, for the larger part, to follow the US.

The alternative is the reestablishment of Russian influence throughout the eastern march states of the EU (Western Europe's cheap labor pool).

Summing this up - the US-EU either finds a way to bring a color revolution to Iran, following an air and special forces based pacification campaign, one which gives precedence to foreign control of Iran's considerable natgas and oil reserves...

...Or the US is looking at thirty years of nasty bush war in northern South America, where there's no radical Islam, but there is a one hundred and thirty year and very deep tradition of fighting unionism and revolutionary communism.

Jack Crow said...

Sorry about some of the tense/missing word problems. I chose between proofing and getting a drink.