Crow's Eye: Maintaining a commitment to Pointless Acrimony™ and Hate Filled Invective™! Also available in corvid mischief and traditional sly dog's mistrust.
"...it's not the training to be mean but the training to be kind that is used to keep us leashed best." ~ Black Dog Red
"In case you haven't recognized the trend: it proceeds action, dissent, speech." ~ davidly, on how wars get done
"...What sort of meager, unerotic existence must a man live to find himself moved to such ecstatic heights by the mundane sniping of a congressional budget fight. The fate of human existence does not hang in the balance. The gods are not arrayed on either side. Poseiden, earth-shaker, has regrettably set his sights on the poor fishermen of northern Japan and not on Washington, D.C. where his ire might do some good--I can think of no better spot for a little wetland reclamation project, if you know what I mean. The fight is neither revolution nor apocalypse; it is hardly even a fight. A lot of apparatchiks are moving a lot of phony numbers with more zeros than a century of soccer scores around, weaving a brittle chrysalis around a gross worm that, some time hence, will emerge, untransformed, still a worm." ~ IOZ
Oil is currently a critical, necessary component in the production of technological hardware---and not just in luxury products such as televisions, but also in life-saving medical equipment. Therefore, the best possible use of this limited resource is burning it up in cars, trucks, planes, etc. (which has the added bonus of polluting the air)!
In all seriousness, though, this pretty much guarantees that we will be going to war with Iran "over their refusal to cooperate with nuclear sanctions" (read: we will be occupying Iran so we can steal their oil), doesn't it?
Make it likely that the US and the EU will combine murderous sanctions, support for currency shenanigans (a la Soros), a color revolution, and perhaps limited air strikes, plus Israeli action against Hizbollah, Hamas/Gaza, shoring up of Mubarak's heir, funding to pliant Somali factions, and further destabilizations, via Balochis and Kurds?
You have a better handle on the intricacies of global politics than I do---although God knows I try to educate myself on what's going on in the world. After reading your response I have to agree with you; an all-out war with Iran probably would not go over very well with the American electorate, some of whom still have a bitter taste in their mouths from the unjustified invasion of Iraq.
As you pointed out, though, the same ends can more or less be accomplished with murderous sanctions and further political or religious destabilization of the Middle East. Israel is an extremely convenient political ally for this very purpose---and I am not aiming for antisemitism with that statement; I have no problem with Jews.
Thank you for linking this. It was very informative; I am largely ignorant of the intricacies of the oil trade---this despite the fact that almost everything around me is reliant in some way on oil. This was the best article I've read on the subject with respect to the fact that it explains not just supply and demand but the process of discovery, development, and production.
That being said, I mulled over the information for a while, then later read it a second time, and then looked into some of the sources cited in the article. I'm still processing the information, and I'll probably have more to say about it tomorrow, but let's just say that graph is extremely sobering.
I guess I was born just in time to get accustomed to a lifestyle and culture that will become unsustainable very, very quickly---and on a global scale. I knew oil was finite, and I knew our oil-based global economy was unsustainable, but I guess I was living in a fantasy to think that we still had a good decade or two before oil production peaked.
I now believe there is very strong evidence to support that it has either already peaked, or will in the next few years.
What do you think when you see that graph? What do you think the future holds, for America, for the world, when we run out of oil?
The short of it? I don't know how the future will unfold. I accept on principle the Clarke Window (we can only really accurately predict events within a 30 year time period, beyond which we can only speculate).
The slightly longer: I imagine that the top layers of hierarchies (corporate, governmental, familial, religious and criminal) will compete for control of luxury oil, and the lifestyles sustained by it, as well as fight for control of the patchwork of partial replacement technologies and fuels. I think that the already mostly ruined Westphalian Order will disintegrate entirely, at some point near to this set of events.
JM,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Revolution
No replacement technology currently under production, research or control even remotely approaches the EROEI of crude oil. And most of these techs require a considerable part of the current oil platform for manufacture and production.
Each of those technologies depend upon oil inputs and the existing oil platform, because they must be built using oil products or byproducts, must be built using machines which are dependent upon the existing oil infrastructure, must be maintained using oil, can only be transported efficiently, or have the constituent parts transported from across the globe, or only mere continents, using an oil slaved transportation grid, with all parts of the resource extraction, design, manufacture, production, sales, shipment and maintenance process dependent upon electricity and energy production which is itself untenable without the pre-existing oil platform.
Furthermore, JM, the foodstuffs, medicine, housing and personal transportation of the laborers who work in the various parts of the production process are all oil dependent, in the quantities and qualities now necessary to maintain even subsistence level survival, in "developed" countries.
I don't think it's a crock. It's just not going to replace cheap oil, which means energy production results in a luxury commodity, subject to greater elite control and concentration, than oil already is.
Basically the problem, and it is really horrific, is that our entire modern, global economy is based on oil in almost every way.
Airplanes, cars, trucks, boats, that's how we get to where we need to go for business or pleasure.
It's also how our food gets to our local stores---ditto for almost every other product you can touch.
Heating in the winter or colder regions of the world will be much more of a challenge.
Anything that involves plastic in any way? Gone.
Roads? Gone. No more tar to maintain them.
Lighting after sunset? Difficult. The 24/7 nature of the world would grind to a halt.
Agriculture as we now know it will cease to exist.
Most modern medical devices and technology is dependent on oil (during production).
I guess the bottom line is you can make educated guesses about how it will be based on pre-industrial societies.
Alternative energy is viable to some degree, as JC pointed out, but basically it relies on oil to produce the equipment AND still will not feasibly provide enough energy to support the current global economy---or the current population, once that economy fails.
After all, with more people in the world, and emerging economies such as China and India, and the ever growing bloat of American demand, oil needs will just go up and up as supply goes down and down.
19 comments:
Oil is currently a critical, necessary component in the production of technological hardware---and not just in luxury products such as televisions, but also in life-saving medical equipment. Therefore, the best possible use of this limited resource is burning it up in cars, trucks, planes, etc. (which has the added bonus of polluting the air)!
In all seriousness, though, this pretty much guarantees that we will be going to war with Iran "over their refusal to cooperate with nuclear sanctions" (read: we will be occupying Iran so we can steal their oil), doesn't it?
A,
Guarantee? I don't know.
Make it likely that the US and the EU will combine murderous sanctions, support for currency shenanigans (a la Soros), a color revolution, and perhaps limited air strikes, plus Israeli action against Hizbollah, Hamas/Gaza, shoring up of Mubarak's heir, funding to pliant Somali factions, and further destabilizations, via Balochis and Kurds?
Yeah.
Jack Crow,
You have a better handle on the intricacies of global politics than I do---although God knows I try to educate myself on what's going on in the world. After reading your response I have to agree with you; an all-out war with Iran probably would not go over very well with the American electorate, some of whom still have a bitter taste in their mouths from the unjustified invasion of Iraq.
As you pointed out, though, the same ends can more or less be accomplished with murderous sanctions and further political or religious destabilization of the Middle East. Israel is an extremely convenient political ally for this very purpose---and I am not aiming for antisemitism with that statement; I have no problem with Jews.
Hopefully Mars is full of oil.
A,
Don't sell yourself short.
fwoan,
There's always Titan, for the winners of the "starve the proles" marathon.
JC,
Thank you for linking this. It was very informative; I am largely ignorant of the intricacies of the oil trade---this despite the fact that almost everything around me is reliant in some way on oil. This was the best article I've read on the subject with respect to the fact that it explains not just supply and demand but the process of discovery, development, and production.
That being said, I mulled over the information for a while, then later read it a second time, and then looked into some of the sources cited in the article. I'm still processing the information, and I'll probably have more to say about it tomorrow, but let's just say that graph is extremely sobering.
I guess I was born just in time to get accustomed to a lifestyle and culture that will become unsustainable very, very quickly---and on a global scale. I knew oil was finite, and I knew our oil-based global economy was unsustainable, but I guess I was living in a fantasy to think that we still had a good decade or two before oil production peaked.
I now believe there is very strong evidence to support that it has either already peaked, or will in the next few years.
What do you think when you see that graph? What do you think the future holds, for America, for the world, when we run out of oil?
There's hope in Solar and wind power though surely:
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/
And are you implying the Iran protests this past June were CIA managed? Also did Soros really support the bank bailout?
A,
The short of it? I don't know how the future will unfold. I accept on principle the Clarke Window (we can only really accurately predict events within a 30 year time period, beyond which we can only speculate).
The slightly longer: I imagine that the top layers of hierarchies (corporate, governmental, familial, religious and criminal) will compete for control of luxury oil, and the lifestyles sustained by it, as well as fight for control of the patchwork of partial replacement technologies and fuels. I think that the already mostly ruined Westphalian Order will disintegrate entirely, at some point near to this set of events.
JM,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Revolution
No replacement technology currently under production, research or control even remotely approaches the EROEI of crude oil. And most of these techs require a considerable part of the current oil platform for manufacture and production.
How do they require it?
Anonymous,
Not sure to what you refer.
Sorry,the anonymous was me. I meant how do the alternative energy projects require the oil platform?
JM,
Each of those technologies depend upon oil inputs and the existing oil platform, because they must be built using oil products or byproducts, must be built using machines which are dependent upon the existing oil infrastructure, must be maintained using oil, can only be transported efficiently, or have the constituent parts transported from across the globe, or only mere continents, using an oil slaved transportation grid, with all parts of the resource extraction, design, manufacture, production, sales, shipment and maintenance process dependent upon electricity and energy production which is itself untenable without the pre-existing oil platform.
Furthermore, JM, the foodstuffs, medicine, housing and personal transportation of the laborers who work in the various parts of the production process are all oil dependent, in the quantities and qualities now necessary to maintain even subsistence level survival, in "developed" countries.
So alternative energy is a crock at this rate?
JM,
I don't think it's a crock. It's just not going to replace cheap oil, which means energy production results in a luxury commodity, subject to greater elite control and concentration, than oil already is.
Basically the problem, and it is really horrific, is that our entire modern, global economy is based on oil in almost every way.
Airplanes, cars, trucks, boats, that's how we get to where we need to go for business or pleasure.
It's also how our food gets to our local stores---ditto for almost every other product you can touch.
Heating in the winter or colder regions of the world will be much more of a challenge.
Anything that involves plastic in any way? Gone.
Roads? Gone. No more tar to maintain them.
Lighting after sunset? Difficult. The 24/7 nature of the world would grind to a halt.
Agriculture as we now know it will cease to exist.
Most modern medical devices and technology is dependent on oil (during production).
I guess the bottom line is you can make educated guesses about how it will be based on pre-industrial societies.
Alternative energy is viable to some degree, as JC pointed out, but basically it relies on oil to produce the equipment AND still will not feasibly provide enough energy to support the current global economy---or the current population, once that economy fails.
After all, with more people in the world, and emerging economies such as China and India, and the ever growing bloat of American demand, oil needs will just go up and up as supply goes down and down.
There will be blood.
Had to link to this: http://the-crows-eye.blogspot.com/2010/04/prepare-to-walk-away-now.html
Fuck, meant that to be this.
Good link, fwoan.
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